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| | Description | Is there anything more important to the success of a project than making good decisions? This skill is certainly at or near the top of the list. Yet, few of us have had formal training in decision making. Decision analysis is the discipline that helps people choose wisely under conditions of uncertainty. This book introduces risk and decision analysis applied to project management. Probability is the language of uncertainty. Fortunately, a few basic concepts in probability and statistics go a long way toward making better decisions. The evaluation calculations are straightforward, and many everyday problems can be solved with a handheld calculator. Schuyler also explains and demystifies key concepts and techniques, including expected value, optimal decision policy, decision trees, the value of information, Monte Carlo simulation, probabilistic techniques, modeling techniques, judgments and biases, utility and multi-criteria decisions, and stochastic variance. Some of Schuyler’s tried-and-true tips include: -The single-point estimate is almost always wrong, so that it is always better to express judgments as ranges. A probability distribution completely expresses someone’s judgment about the likelihood of values within the range. -We often need a single-value cost or other assessment, and the expected value (mean) of the distribution is the only unbiased predictor. Expected value is the probability-weighted average, and this statistical idea is the cornerstone of decision analysis. -Some decisions are easy, perhaps aided by quick decision tree calculations on the back of an envelope. Decision dilemmas typically involve risky outcomes, many factors, and the best alternatives having comparable value. We only need analysis sufficient to confidently identify the best alternative. As soon as you know what to do, stop the analysis! -Be alert to ways to beneficially change project risks. We can often eliminate, avoid, transfer, or mitigate threats in some way. Get to know the people who make their living helping managers sidestep risk. They include insurance agents, partners, turnkey contractors, accountants, trainers, and safety personnel. | |
| | Product Details | | Author: | John Schuyler | | Paperback: | 259 pages | | Publisher: | Project Management Institute | | Publication Date: | 2001-06 | | Language: | English | | ISBN: | 1880410281 | | Package Length: | 10.02 inches | | Package Width: | 7.08 inches | | Package Height: | 0.73 inches | | Package Weight: | 1.33 pounds | | Average Customer Rating: |  based on 5 reviews |
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| | Customer Reviews | Average Customer Review:
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 Some useful content but appendices full of errors (that the author acknowledges) and numerous disconnects Dec 23, 2009
This was one of our two textbooks in a recent MBA class in risk management. Consequently, I became familiar with it. There is some useful content but three major flaws lowered its utility significantly.
First, the content reads, for the most part, like the unedited (or hastily-edited) compilation of the author's teaching notes. This became evident due to numerous disconnects within the chapters. The text leaves out a lot of important explanations. For example, there are mathematical problems that can't be solved by simply using the text.
Second, the book's presentation was poorly planned. The typeface is too small. It appears to be Times 8-point. The paper is too off-color. It strains the eyes.
Third, the appendices are replete with errors. The author is part of the faculty at my school so I was able to contact him easily. He acknowledged the errors, thanked me, and promised that the correct information will be in the next edition. (I have the email correspondence with the author.)
If it's your textbook, you're out of luck. If you're looking for a good reference book on risk decision and analysis, look elsewhere!
Very shallow Nov 17, 2009
If you are looking for good reference book, this is not it. The book shows the topics but they are treated very superficially, you cannot even find a good complete example. I do not recommend it if you are looking for a serious decision analysis book.
1 of 2 found the following review helpful:
Bof... Sep 11, 2009
It's very only basics. First year graduate school level and useless for a real specialist. But can be interesting for someone who wants just an overwiev.
9 of 9 found the following review helpful:
 For Educated & Experienced Readers Aug 08, 2003
Comprehensive and well-written treatment of a difficult subject. The book is aimed at project managers but readers who have college-level math and/or project experience in business can learn from this book. As a project manager, I learned where my skills were weak and needed strengthening, amoung other things. More importantly, I picked up techniques and methods to use on the job.
One short-coming of the book is the dearth of references. One would expect many more references for such an multidimensional subject.
7 of 18 found the following review helpful:
boring... May 22, 2002
It is a snooze feast. Even if you do risk management the book reads like quantum physics in that it looks good in print but how do you prove it in the real world. A very good text book, a really bad business book.
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